tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC January 22, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EST
more revenues as part of a balanced package. >> finally we're coming off a majestic weekend of the inauguration of course. a lot of the coverage today suggests that the president's address was perhaps too political. perhaps too much policy. a couple of shots at his political opponents. how far or unfair is that criticism? >> i don't think it's fair. you know, if the president was too general he'd be criticized. i think the president felt he needed to be clear and strong in order to get people thinking and moving off of dead center. so i think that criticism is not fair. >> congressman, we're in for a few months of interesting debate. appreciate your time. please come back. >> i think we'll be talking a lot. >> congressman sander levin -- >> both before noon and after noon. >> thank you very much. sergey brin was spotted
riding the subway and wearing google glasses t reality eye wear. one writes he sees dollars bills. manti te'o's girlfriend. and sergey brin says i see dead people carrying iphones. that's going to do it for us today. let's get to the headquarters of "fast money halftime." >> and carl, thanks very much. welcome to the halftime report. four hours to go until the close. right there on the wall is where we stand on this tuesday on wall street. there's the dow. up modestly today. s&p and nasdaq are in the red. here's what we're following. the market's next leg, will it be up and down with a big week of earnings getting started? we have 12 billion reasons why you should pay attention. dealing for dell, new details about the company's plan the go private. and now microsoft's in the mix. what does it mean for the stock? a big debate is coming up. but first, our top story, tech's
big moment. over the next 30 hours, some of the biggest names in the industry will report their earnings and for a sector that's dramatically underperformed the market so far this year, anticipation could not be higher. google, ibm, texas instruments all in the halftime playbook and we're trading the big movers with josh brown and mike murphy and doc, i'm going to you first. >> because you called me joe. >> it's the options market. where you can often see what the market is betting on ahead of earnings like this. what do you do expect or see? >> well, just to give the viewers a little insight here from what the trading perspective and the options floors has judged, ibm ahead of earnings tonight is a $6 straddle at the 195 strike. that's implying a 3% move up or down. volatility is right around 40. so you'd expect that since apple is implying a 7% move it's
implied volatility would be double that, you would be right. apple's implied vol at 93 is implying a move of $36 or more for those earnings. google is about the same, a $39 move on a $700 stock. 6.5% let's say. all of these are probably being faded by many investors who last week were very flattered and thinking they knew exactly how to price things because apple pinned right at 500. i don't think we'll pin this week. i think it's going to make a move up or down. my bet is up in apple right now. >> josh brown, how do you see things transpiring? >> let me just mention a couple of things that everyone involved with google should be thinking about today. first of all, this stock on a relative basis has performed very badly versus the overall market over the last week. it's off about 6%. however, i has clung to the $700 level which historically has been pretty important
technically. the other thing, the last time they reported the street was totally shocked by half a billion loss they posted in the motorola mobility unit. i think that's where most of the focus will be today. >> that's why one analyst called it a water buffalo. such an overhang. >> here's the deal. nobody is expecting them to be profitable in this unit. but that was a shocking loss and it's going to be harder and harder for them to justify continuing to lose money in that area unless they have got some concrete numbers that they can come with and show, hey, this is working. we're gaining in traction and ads. i think that's the focal point of the stock and what it moves based on. that's what i'd be thinking going into the earnings tonight. >> i think it's important where technology is on a fundamental basis right now. we have gone from desktop to the smartphone and the tablet now. what is that doing? for you out there you have to understand margins. every big big cap companies understands the margins right now.
so google, you're not seeing that margin growth there because we're moving into the smartphones and the tablets. i say take a look at ibm. ibm has the continuing recovering revenue stream. it's a defensive technology play at a moment where that's what you need. >> murph, give me a quick read. >> real quick, when you look at apple and google, apple has pull back 25, 30%. so google a 10% off the recent highs and i think there's more downside on google. but i think the bar is set so low for apple it can clear and start to rally into the mid 500. >>'s move -- let's move and get to a developing story. shares of apple trading near the lows of the day. got us wondering if the comments from the cfos comments.
>> i tweeted out this morning, so cfo sha mow was asked about subsidies in the earnings call. as we get more and more fl platforms into the mix, now we have rim out there again there's the incremental competition. there will be subsidy reduction as there was in the basic phone history in the ecosystem. he's saying there will be more mix. the subsidies are down. you can say he's basically telling you here, as the smartphone becomes a bigger part of the market and more competition, no one is going to be able to command a higher subsidy than someone else. let the market duke it out if that's the case. >> you have to wonder though if something dramatic on scale is going to happen with subsidies. i want to listen to an interview we did a couple of weeks ago with the ceo of verizon where i asked him point blank about subsidies. let's listen. we'll react. >> i'm not sure customers in the
u.s. are ready to pay $700 for an iphone or a galaxy 3. so we'll have to see. let them try it. >> well, i mean, in other words, you don't -- they're not going to change any time soon. because you're not going to pay 700 bucks for a galaxy or iphone. neither is anybody else. >> unless the manufacturers have to lower their own prices and take their hit on margin. at some point, verizon won't always take the hit. >> who has the power in the relationship? apple or verizon? >> i think as these become more commoditized as smartphones become less different, i think verizon gets the upper hand. >> it's a great point on your part and that's what's happening right now. it's becoming where they need verizon than verizon needs them. that's all about competition. so i just don't see it right now working against the investors' advantage not to own verizon. i think given what we saw in the earnings, they're strong. yes, margins were little bit weak today, but i think overall verizon is an excellent player.
>> i want to say one quick thing on that. remember, it's about margins at verizon. this is something jim cramer did. >> about margins. >> when i put that out there, some people said it's a small amount. what's the m.o. on wall street? every basis point counts. for verizon even a little bit on one side is a big -- >> it benefits verizon. >> herb, thanks as always. provocative comment on the call. colin gillis will join us and react to all this. we obviously want to talk about google's earnings after the bell today. we can look ahead to apple tomorrow. what's your reaction today? >> you know, we keep trying to drive home the point that apple is going to continue to have some success at the high end. they have a loyal customer base, but they have a difficult time getting scale. look at the verizon numbers that came out today. indicated about 1 million iphones were sold more than we were expecting that's a good
number. the stock is down on that. so if you are a carrier, you're going to want to reduce that subsidy whenever possible. >> yeah. well, obviously, but the point is is customers aren't ready for them to do that. you're not going to pay $700 for an iphone. >> it's important to look at the results as well. if you see the mix, it looks like about half of the units sold to that 6.2 were iphone 5s. and the other half would be iphone 4s and 4-ss. i think that'll have a bit of a tweak on the asps to the down side. i see asps declining. a big part of this is google. >> give me the read on google after the bell today. i think what i find most interesting about your note and you have had a hold on this stock is that you say without motorola mobility, you'd have thing rated a buy. >> yeah. >> so you like the fundamentals in the core business. you just don't like the elephant in the room. >> absolutely.
motorola is a mill stone. it's the gift that keeps on giving from the negative perspective. we saw the losses in the september quarter and we'll look and see what type of expense reduction we got. you still have expenses growing faster than the core value. and the only thing that has me concerned is click pricing. we are more pessimistic than our peers. that would be the fourth quarter in a row of double digit click pricing declines and this is because of the mobile explosion and because mobile clicks are less effective, advertisers are paying less for them. >> hey, colin, this is mike murphy. if you can talk about facebook's new sync deal, the graph thing they came out with. how would you compare that? how is that going to affect google on the negative side? are they now taking market share away from google in your opinion? >> you know, it's nothing that has me -- it's not a risk i view in the near term. it's something to watch. the whole concept of social
search and turning to your social graph for recommendations as opposed to google. but google's core search business is a wonderful business. it's a power house. they're the leader. they will be for many, many quarters. >> help me understand this. you're willing to miss a move in google like you have all because of motorola mobility? i mean, when you know that the business is working and they're going to figure that out eventually. i mean, don't you have to give larry and sergay the benefit on that? >> on the plus side, you can say they'll get that motorola expense down. but what will that i do with motorola once they have it working? they'll be making hardware and selling at no margin or even at a loss. the question you have to ask yourself, did they need to go through this? look at the success they had with the nexus 7 tablet, look at the success they have had with
the nexus phone built by 4g. there's the potential of liabilities from the lawsuit stay with google. this is not something that can be undone easily and it's going to wreck another quarter. i think it will be a drag for next few quarters. >> i've got to run. but give me one more comment on apple because the folks watching here and the people who are going to light up my twitter feed today are going to say, gillis has been wrong on apple for a long time. you could say you've been early, but i mean,ly tike sleeping out, camping out for the store to own. the stock has pulled back, but you missed that by a wide margin. >> wait, wait, how did i miss out? >> you have had a hold on the stock for the longest time. >> so listen, again, with apple, we see some upside to this quarter. we see some upside to our price target, right? we're looking for 49 million iphones being sold. a little above consensus in that number.
apple is a fine stock. i don't see it significantly outperforming the spx. the same thing with google. i mean, look at the numbers. apple is up about 20%, google up about 19%. you go back the last 52 weeks i like to pick names like ebay, up closer to 60%, yahoo! >> you get my point where i'm coming from. >> don't confuse, you know, a hold with a sell and all these type of things. you know, the names that we like to focus in on, again, are ones that are -- that try to give you significant upside beyond the s&p. >> colin, good to talk to you as always. i like to go back and forth with you. >> as always. fellows, we can kick it around? >> just on google, he talked about the nexus 4 and 7 and you can talk about the nexus 10 also. but they're selling these at cost. i think right now when you look at google, to step ahead of what potentially may occur in tonight's earnings, i think that would be foolhardy. you have 650 as the line in the sand. everyone will look at the
200-day moving average. if you believe that works or not, everybody is looking at it. >> i think it's interesting that he believes the motorola deal was a bad deal. they went out and made a big deal. looks like they grossly overpaid for it also. i'll agree with him there. that could be holding apple back watching what happened with google. >> well, coming up, a possible dell buyout. not all our traders agree on what it means for the stock. no plus, with the s&p near five-year highs what will fuel the next leg? erin gibbs the equity cio will tell you what she's betting on. and we'll have four plays on four stocks that can make you some money. what are you doing? nothing. are you stealing our daughter's school supplies and taking them to work? no, i was just looking for my stapler and my... this thing. i save money by using fedex ground and buy my own supplies.
that's a great idea. i'm going to go... we got clients in today. [ male announcer ] save on ground shipping at fedex office. [ male announcer ] save on ground shipping (announcer) at scottrade, our cexactly how they want.t with scottrade's online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login... to easily move my money when i need to. plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. because i don't trade like everybody. i trade like me. i'm with scottrade. (announcer) scottrade. awarded five-stars from smartmoney magazine.
welcome back to kwat the halftime report. we're looking at facebook. one of the best market performers. topeka they report on january 30th. of course that $40 price target still well below the post-ipo price. new details emerging on the reported dell buyout with microsoft possibly investing up to $3 billion according to our very own david faber. the stock's up 29% so far this year, but what does the speculation mean going forward?
gentlemen, we'll debate it. joe, first. >> well, i'll say that i have said that i believe dell is a turn around story in 2013. in essence, it's the technology of yahoo!. i still think right now i am long, i'm staying long even with the price at 13.25. i think the lbo deal will be presented and i think there will be a go shop provision within that deal that'll allow for shareholders to get an even higher price than what people are talking about. >> if you're in dell, i think that's a great trade, but seeing the stock up here today, 13.25. when we're hearing 13.50 on a deal that may or may not get done, i think that's a terrible place to go in and buy the stock here today. if this deal is scrapped, i think the stock pulls back 15 to 20% quickly. >> i don't disagree with you if the deal is scrapped. there will be significant downside. >> of course. right, stocks run up exclusively on the fact. >> however, i believe number one, that the probability of the
deal being pulled off the table is relatively small. i think michael dell has clearly stated back in 2010 he gave a speech where he highlighted the desire to actually go private and slow down the process of which his company is viewed. but additionally even on a pull back i want to own this name. this name has done a great job in beginning to diversify and now it's going to take what it has in the assets. do it slowly. to answer your question, again, i go back to what's the hotter trade to make right now? the harder trade is to stay in the trade for what could be a price north of -- >> who made the more compelling argument on dell? >> i think this is a case where the easy money has been made and maybe michael dell can get a dollar or two higher. but the risk reward is on those who would take the profits and let whatever happens happen. so i would have to come down on the side of mike murphy. do something else. this looks as close to done as you get. >> the case is closed on dell. the next guest thinks the next leg for stocks is going to be
higher. erin gibbs is in the house today. nice to see you. welcome. >> thank you. >> what's going to get us this 10% gain for stocks this year? >> so there are a few things. one is obviously the improving unemployment rate. another that we're finally seeing is a nice housing recovery. with bernanke's monetary combination we think that will come up. then finally, we're seeing earnings growth. right now we're looking at 2013 earnings growth at 6.4, 6.5%. >> the parts of the market you think we should be in right now are what? >> for 2013, the two biggest sectors for growth are consumer discretionary and financials. this has been a consumer discretionary led recovery so far. we like the s&p, we're focused on earnings stability and those are what we like the most. >> you have actual names you want to talk about? >> yes. two that i really like are
chipotle mexican grill. they have had solid earnings, as well as great earnings for this year. the other one, little more contrarian is big lots. more of a value play. but again, we have seen strong cash flows and particularly where it's trading now we see it as a good value. >> on the big lots i'm glad you mentioned the contrarian play. a lot of people would say you should stay away from this. a lot of insider selling and the fbi looking at insider trading stuff. the ceo is retiring. >> yes. so we see those uncertainties, once they play out, they have the cash flows and they have the earnings. this is something that can be easily part of the recovery in the -- >> on the other side, chipotle, i would say they're going the raise prices because the food costs are going up. are they going up too much? >> for the forecast we still see a solid growth, no. chipotle is still well priced
and it has a unique -- it's a unique space. i mention chipotle to my client, they're like, oh great. >> the lines are out the door. >> exactly. people are willing to pay the extra 50 cents, a dollar for it. >> i'm with you on the s&p rallying this year. but chipotle i have a question on. i love the food. but with the prices going up, what's a fair value because if somebody like a mcdonald's comes in there which is talk they will, can't you see chipotle coming back into the 20, 25 multiple versus the 30, 35 it's getting right now? >> i see it fairly valued. even with mcdonald's coming to the space, they've been talking about raises prices forever too. >> what about the issues that are unresolved? if you look at say the market, the market is going to gain 10% this year. you know, i say to you, well, we have the bickering in washington. that's not going to subside any time soon. what happens if the fed takes the punch bowl away earlier than, you know, a lot of people
want? >> so we have right now, we have a 10% forecast for the s&p 500 up for the end of the year. brings us above 1600, that is based on bernanke giving us the continued housing recovery and that's an -- >> are there any areas in the market you're having trouble finding buys, things where you'd find outside of the discretionaries and the financials? >> utilities and materials are two of the worst sectors particularly for 2013. we're a big avoid across the board. and another concern that we have with the second half of the fiscal cliff, obviously spending cuts, is with the industrials defense and then health care providers. and particularly with health care providers, not just the health care sector in itself. but with the medicare cuts, automatic cuts would have presented 2% or $11 billion cut
and i don't see obama care off setting all that particularly for the hospitals and doctors. one of the stocks in the avoid list is tenant health care. and i think that particular industry, that niche is very vulnerable. until let's say maybe the second half of the year when we get all of these resolved, that's something that i'm telling our clients those are the avoids. >> thanks for coming in. >> thank you. >> nice to see you. erin gibb. guys, some trades? >> financials are the place to look at. i love what we saw from regent financials this morning. goldman sack, morgan stanley, keep holding it. the research in motion is soaring, it soared 150% in six months. we'll get the play as blackberry 10 gets closer to market. is the gas trade heating up? we'll find out.
introducing the all-new 2013 lexus ls f sport. an entirely new pursuit. introducing the all-new 2013 lexus ls f sport. try running four.ning a restaurant is hard, fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phone charges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put right back into our business. this is the only thing we've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it.
welcome back to the halftime report. we have breaking news on the rating agency firm eagan jones. swell the cofounder, shawn eagan. they agreed to an 18-month ban from the firm rating asset back in government securities. this because of a charge that was lodged by the s.e.c. last year after it found that its application to become a nationally recognized statistical rating organization for these type of securities when it made that application back in 2008, it made false and misleading statements. so again, eagan jones agreeing to an 18-month ban with the s.e.c. to rate these products. the company says it's pleased with the settlement. it will continue to rate corporate bank and finance and insurance issues and then reapply to rate the other securities when the 18-month ban
is lifted. shawn egann is traveling and could not be reached for comment. >> here are the top three trades. j&j topped street expectations. it's off two-thirds of 1% on that. >> they beat on earnings but they were light on revenue. the bigger story they're now proactivity talking about spinning off of some units. there's a lot of value that needs to be unlocked. the stock hasn't done anything in ten years. >> how about freeport m freepor give me the scoop. >> it sold off on news of the two acquisitions but i think it's going back to 40 now. >> all right. research in motion, yep, it's up again today ahead of the launch of blackberry 10. they're getting an upgrade from -- to outperform over at scotia capital.
the stock is up 10%. >> it is. the stock is repricing higher. full disclosure here, i am short rim via the $18 puts. this is nothing more than a tech nickel trade in my -- technical trade, the potential for a reversal could set up. do i think it will work? no. it may happen in an hour, may happen in 24 hours. don't follow me. but full disclosure that's what i have on. >> here's an obvious head line if you live in the northeast, it's cold outsite. that's a big help for natural gas. but is the rally over? let's go to jackie deangelis know, the host of the new online show. >> that's right. and nat gas is used to heat homes so let's bring in the futures crew to see if it has legs. anthony is at the nymex.
we're seeing a sell-off today. is that a sign that the move is over? >> well, i think if you look at what's happened over the last few weeks, we were cruising along with a mild winter and then boom, the cold winter hit us. when people didn't realize the depth of the cold air. and those shorts had to cover once we got above 330. i think when -- if we get through this week or when we get through this week and you look at the long term forecast it is supposed to moderate in temperature. i think you have seen the high over the last or for this contract and you should see the market start to come off. >> well, that's a good point. this is one of the most shorted commodities. might not still be the case right now, but are there net longs in this trade? >> well, jackie, if you take the c.o.t. report, you back it out four weeks, you see net longs and big boys added to the long position, and paired back on e the -- and pared back on the short positions. they have added 65,000 contracts which is supported for the
market. grizz pointed out we have been up seven of the eight. i think we're hitting a wall at about 3.5. really jackie, the range for nat gas is 3 to 4 for the next couple of months. >> so range bound. our thanks to rich and grizz and be sure to log on for the full futures now show. doug cass will be on. he's making a bold call on apple. he'll tell us how he's playing the stock ahead of the earnings tomorrow. scott? >> thanks so much. all right, coming up, the transports continue to rally, hitting a historic high for fifth straight session. how long can you ride that train and trade? we head to the floor of the new york stock exchange for some answers. our traders are fast, but not always right. josh brown will be on the hot seat as we look at a bearish trade gone bad. more "halftime" in two. we're halfway through the trading day. next we cover the dead cat
bounces, the island reversals, the breakouts and break downs in pops and drops. plus, they say the dumb money trades in the morning and the smart morning trades into the close. so we reveal what that smart money is buying and trading before that final bell tolls. when we continue. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. [ male announcer ] when we built the cadillac ats from the ground up to be the world's best sport sedan... ♪
welcome back. the dow transports hitting all time highs helped with better than expected earnings from kansas city southern is this milestone a sell signal? let's go to the floor of the new york stock exchange now and try and get the answer from very own steve grasso. welcome back. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> so the transports are rallying, the dow has been in large part going higher. is this going to last? >> well, the transports have been up since mid november about 17%. but you just touched on one, ksu. if you look at the top four holdings in the transports, they account for basically 40% of the whole index. all of them whether it's upm, fedex or u.p.s., they're all registering overbought right now. >> so you're telling me look for a pull back then in maybe not
only the stocks but the transports in general? >> yeah, i think you need to pull back specific stocks obviously if they're 40%. if you get that pull back i think people will start to lose a little bit of luster once we get to 1500, 1505 on the s&p. >> now, grasso, correct me if i'm wrong, but the thing most people watching are concerned about right now, if oil starts to spike here and the xle has been really strong that's not necessarily a great thing for something like fedex and a lot of the other components that benefit from lower oil prices in the trading index. would you agree with that? >> i would totally agree with that. there are so many other issues to look at. when you look at unp, a lot of the revenue growth was do due to increasing margins because of their pricing power. but csx and nse don't have that. see a flip side of the coin. from one play another play. so you have to dig deeper inside and don't treat it as the transport index.
>> on the cse what can help them is the turn around in cold demand. i know you have been in the coal names as you're in right now. but that could help this company. >> well, if you look at any of the rails, they'll tell you the biggest margins are on transporting coal. so whenever you see that coal demand slide, you know that the rails are going to get hit. so we have seen coal bottom as far as prices. so maybe to your point, you do get a little bit of a wind at your back so to speak. >> grasso, good to see you as always. see you soon. >> good to see you guys. cni raised the dividend, met the expectations on the eps and the stock is down on the day. so steve may be right. may need more -- you may need a beaten race. >> doc, you have a read on what grasso is talking about on the floor here? >> yeah, but i like the underperformer in the group, norfolk southern nse. that's one pete has been talking about lately.
over the last three months. kansas city is up about 16, 17% like grasso said. but this one is pretty flat over the last three months. i like it to play catch-up and top see a little rotation out of one end of the cheaper one. >> all right. let's do the biggest pops and drops in midday trading. our first pop is for western dij. >> 4 1/2 highs, judge. it has already traded full session volume today. people continue to like the storage space. i'm one of those people. i like stx as well as wdc. >> murph? cat dropping today. >> caterpillar did kind of a sneaky move. late friday they announced an acquisition they made in china had some bad accounting. i think this works fine. it's a small deal for them. caterpillar is fine. >> j.b. give me the take on new skin. >> so dan lobe is a actually not a fan of multilevel companies
and the stock opened down. but it's coming back on the day. we don't have any confirmation there what the position size is. >> joey, the read on travelers? >> it's a name i owned for much of 2012. got shaken out after sandy. excellent report, the insurance companies look strong. they're strong in auto, even in business insurance itself. pricing looks good here. i think this is very favorable also for aig potentially. >> okay. and a big drop for gas clouds. that's right. here's the story that's causing a pretty big stink over europe. people awoke to the unpleasant smell of rotten eggs and sweat. i it's being attributed to a gas leak and now it's spread over 220 miles and has been dubbed the great french stench. all right, coming up on the half, the biggest names in finance and politics are meeting
the 2013 c-class coupe. ♪ starting at $37,800. ♪ starting at $37,800. you know it can be hard to lbreathe, and how that feels.e, copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. spiriva helps control my copd symptoms by keeping my airways open for 24 hours. plus, it reduces copd flare-ups. spiriva is the only once-daily
inhaled copd maintenance treatment that does both. spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace fast-acting inhalers for sudden symptoms. tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. these may worsen with spiriva. discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medical help if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells, you get hives, vision changes or eye pain, or problems passing urine. other side effects include dry mouth and constipation. nothing can reverse copd. spiriva helps me breathe better. (blowing sound) ask your doctor about spiriva. olaf gets great rewards for his small business! pizza! [ garth ] olaf's small business earns 2% cash back on every purchase, every day! helium delivery. put it on my spark card! [ pop! ] [ garth ] why settle for less? great businesses deserve great rewards!
awesome!!! [ male announcer ] the spark business card from capital one. choose unlimited rewards with 2% cash back or double miles on every purchase, every day! what's in your wallet? good afternoon, everybody. coming up on "power lunch" 22 days into the new year and the s&p has returned more than 4%. smart ways to get back inin the game if you're not already. the budget battle is heating up in washington. so what investors need to know about the coming weeks and we'll give you a road map. phil mickelson now apologizing, backing off the controversial comments on high income taxes in the state of california. but does the golf titan have his math right? we'll look at mr. mickelson. >> thanks so much. not so fast, josh, the traders are quick. but not always right. listen to what josh brown said
about netflix back in october. >> i'm a hater. look, all of the people that are being very bullish about the stock in the past week, hedge fund managers, they're buried this this thing. why would you own shares of a company with an unproven business model, big expenditures overseas? >> well, shares are up 56% since then. are you still drinking the hatorade? >> i have been wrong, but everything i have said as reasons not to like it is still around. the company reports tomorrow. this is not a report that i'd want to be involved in the stock ahead of. quite frankly, they have got to add 5 million net new subs. they have a history of being hot and cold on the reports. guidance is out of control as far as what people are looking for, as far as the downside and upside. for me i'm not interested in it and i'll say congratulations to everyone who faded me and made
money. i was clearly ahead of time being bearish on -- >> it has been an impressive move. >> monster. >> it was up in eight months. >> well, you can't -- scott, forget -- the deals are what's gotten the stock moving. but the deals are old now. you can't be short a stock when so many are people are shorted. that's the lesson that people learned with herbalife and netflix. you can say i don't like it, but that doesn't mean it's an automatic sell short. especially for someone who doesn't have the risk management. so this is just one of the things where other people made money. i missed out. but, you know, i still think this is not my cup of tea. >> okay. leaders from across the globe meeting at the world economic forum in davos, switzerland this week. what's getting the loudest chatter out there? anthony scaramucci is out there. nice to see you out there. >> scott, nice to see you. i'm freezing from the waist
down. sammy wright put me in the chair without a jacket. but -- >> she does that to you, man. >> yeah. the big thing we're talking about right now though is japan and the shotgun barrels, the 12-gauge shotgun loaded with fiscal and monetary stimulus. this will be very good for asset prices in japan, particularly stocks. it's terrible long-term. it will have devastating effect long term on the yen. and it's akin who what josh brown was saying about netflix. in the short term, you will see asset prices rise in japan. but you can go back to charts in 2002 and 2003 when they pull quantitative easing in japan they retrace back to where we were when we got started. so this is a careful and volatile situation over there. it's a big topic of discussion here. >> you have obviously an impressive collection of money and power out there in davos. what do you think the overall read for the market is here in
the united states let's say over the next 6, 8, 12 months from the kind of people you'll hear from there? shine some light on what the smart money is thinking. >> well, you know, i think our very own andrew row sark did a piece yesterday about this place being a contra indicator. so people are in general sanguine. i think they'll be right this year because of the massive act come dangss -- accommodations going on around the world. then you have the ecb that has to deal with spain and greece. i think we'll have a positive year for asset prices, scott. that seems to be the sentiment here. but we're just getting started. i look forward to back on thursday where i can give you more granular detail that i can give you on this big swinging event. >> okay. j joe teranova has something for
you. >> there were a lot of black swans coming out of davos. do they remain or have they kind of taken that apocalyptic view and pulled back on it? >> no. you know, we have got noir ellas in the house. he said the greek would default last year and there were a lot of great fundamental reasons that greece should have defaulted. but dan lowe got that trade right because he had a good understanding of the macro political situation and the fact that angela merkel was going to stand behind the greek government. so that's one of the great things about an event like this. you can see things from an asset perspective and a valuation perspective, but now you have to put an overlay of what's going on in the political situation. politics has become part of our business now, joe. and so i'm glad i'm on the ground and i hope to be able to share more later on in the week. >> the always colorful anthony
scaramucci. >> good to see you guys. >> so you can go through some of the picks, guys. ibm, jpmorgan, goldman, caterpillar, anybody? murph? >> that's the dow. i like them all. all large cap. i think those are pretty safe names. >> i know joe likes goldman. >> i love goldman. and they'll be rerated higher. go back to the ibm. i like ibm where it sits as a defensive play. >> all right. all day coverage of davos 2013 begins tomorrow only here on cnbc. so coming up on "halftime" our traders will deliver on everything from starbucks to foster wheeler. that's coming up next. ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you make 70,000 trades a second... ♪ reach one customer at a time? ♪
or help doctors turn billions of bytes of shared information... ♪ into a fifth anniversary of remission? ♪ whatever your business challenge, dell has the technology and services to help you solve it. ♪ [ male announcer ] some day, your life will flash before your eyes. make it worth watching. introducing the 2013 lexus ls. an entirely new pursuit.
welcome back. the australian dollar is ripping higher against the greenback this year, but will the trend continue, let's bring in todd gordon. do you think it will keep going? >> i think it will start going. the australian dollar has been caught in a range for about the last year and a half. it's where the overall risk sentiment is. i think we'll break higher. the 106 level is containing topside. we have data tonight, tomorrow is the flash pmi number, it's good, because it's a private bank. some good readings there would
solidify a nonrate cut from the rba in february. that will push us up through the 6 level. >> you said it was in a range what was it waiting for? con fir that that there wasn't going to be a chinese train wreck? >> it hung in incredibly well through the entire chinese downturn. look at the hang seng, it can't be stopped. 106 looks good. we had good earnings from freeport mac, and actually last week rio tinto was expanding mining operations. so all bullish. >> let's play it. give me the levels we should be using? >> you have to wait until this thing breaks. 1.06 needs to trade to get lock, then 1.05 for the stop loss, and look for profit at 1.09. >> good stuff. talk to you soon. >> thanks, guys. when you ask we deliver on "half time." four stocks lit up my timeline
on twitter lately. traders are here to give you the scoop. let's talk about starbucks. >> options are cheap. >> i had more than one person ask me what you thought about that stock. >>. >> all of the data tells you the remodeling will continue to be a story this year for usgcorp. if you believe this is something that will continue, it's as pure as a pure play that you can get. this one, i feel, has more room to the upside. i've liked it, but i think it can continue to work. >> foster wheeler, murph? >> the stock is breaking out to the upside here, looking for it to move above 30. what will move foster wheeler is the economic recovery in this
country, as that heats up, that bodes well for foster wheeler. number two, you also have their energy component, which can be a catalyst to earnings, which should get these guys to trade about 15 times earnings. so you can buy foster wheeler here. >> keep the tweets coming. we'll try to get to as many as we can. lsi is another. dr. j., what is the trade here? >> ahead of earnings, it has had a fair amount of speculative trading in the stock, where it's traded north of 10 million shares, average is more like 2. after the bell tomorrow and even though it's a cheap $7 stock, i like it here. it's one of those ways you can play storage and the semis. >> all right. final trades when we come back. i have low testosterone. there, i said it.
see, i figured low testosterone would decrease my sex drive... but when i started losing energy and became moody... that's when i had an honest conversation with my doctor. we discussed all the symptoms... then he gave me some blood tests. showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number -- not just me. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% (testosterone gel). the #1 prescribed topical testosterone replacement therapy, increases testosterone when used daily. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or signs in a woman, which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to acctal men with breast cancer or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are or may become pregnant or are breastfeeding, should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep,
and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. so...what do men do when a number's too low? turn it up! [ male announcer ] in a clinical study, over 80% of treated men had their t levels restored to normal. talk to your doctor about all your symptoms. get the blood tests. change your number. turn it up. androgel 1.62%.